通货膨胀腕表 - 2016年9月

保险信息研究所(I.I.I.新利国际娱乐)通货膨胀腕表电子表格包含来自美国劳工统计局(BLS)的最新数据。目前和预期的近期通货膨胀均断历史标准持续低位,但通货膨胀率上升有口袋。CPI-U-THE流行的通货膨胀措施,有时称为标题通胀 - 2016年9月在季节性调整之前的2016年9月与2015年9月的1.5%。然而,核心通货膨胀 - 整体指数减去食物和能源的价格变化的影响 - 截至2016年9月的12个月的价格变化为2.2%。(大多数经济学家更喜欢一年多年的时间框架和核心 - 而不是“标题“-Inflation措施。)自2015年5月以来,BLS同年核心通胀率一直在慢慢培训,但自2016年1月以来基本上是平面的。核心同比个人消费支出(PCE)缩小者 - 联邦Reserve Bank’s preferred inflation measure—has ranged from 1.3 percent to 1.9 percent since the end of the Great Recession and, as of August 2016, was 1.7 percent (the latest value). There still appears to be some slack in both the U.S. and especially the larger global economies, making sharp near-term overall future price increases unlikely. From a macroeconomic policy viewpoint, sharply rising inflation doesn’t appear to be a current or near-future problem to combat, but gradually rising inflation is possible and is being watched by the Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee, among others. Many forecasters project headline CPI for the fourth quarter of 2016 to move higher, ranging between 1.7 and 3.3 percent.

更直接影响物业/伤亡(P / C)保险索赔的物品价格趋势不一定遵循基于广泛的价格指数。根据工人赔偿和身体伤害责任等第三方覆盖范围,以及诸如人身伤害保护(PIP)和MED PAY等的第一方覆盖,以及明显,医疗费用保险等物品的物品价格。多年来,这些价格上涨远远超过了标题通货膨胀和医疗护理的整体价格指数。2016年9月,住院医院护理价格上涨6.3%,季节性调整。Seasonally adjusted prices for outpatient hospital services rose by 4.6 percent in September 2016 over September 2015. The 4.6 percent y-o-y rise in outpatient hospital prices, though modest compared to inpatient price increases, is a sharp change from the y-o-y increases for outpatient hospital services earlier this year (up 1.0 percent in April and 1.1 percent in May). The reason for the sharp increase is to some degree a statistical artifact in that, on a month-to-month basis in the past 12 months, there were two months in which outpatient prices spiked (up 1.5 percent in October 2015 over September, and up 1.8 percent in August 2016 over July). In two months from now the October 2015 price level will drop out of the year-over-year computation, and so that year-over-year change will appear to moderate unless prices for outpatient hospital services in November 2016 rise to a comparable extent. Price changes for prescription drugs have been rising strongly, on a month-over-month basis, in 2016, except in May (when they dropped by 0.6 percent). August 2016 saw the sharpest month-over-month rise (1.7 percent), which was preceded by month-over-month rises of 0.9 percent in February and June and 1.0 percent in July, and followed in September by a 0.8 percent increase over August, producing a year-over-year rise for September 2016 of 7.0 percent.

与汽车保险财产的价格增加最近也非常适中。汽车零件和设备的价格不仅影响全面和碰撞索赔,而且遭受财产损失责任,2016年9月下降了1.2%,2016年9月至2015年9月。自2012年8月以来,这些价格在大多数几个月内下降,尽管每月都有一些月增加,即使是2011年4月/ 5月的价格也是如此。当然,欢迎机动车零件和设备的价格下降,但他们应该进入上下文:2012年8月和2012年2月,这些价格几乎每月上涨。累计增益46.7%(复合年增长率约为3.3%)。截至2016年9月止12个月的汽车维修价格上涨1.7%,致力于2016年3月的2016年3月的0.6%的0.6%,并于3月份举行了0.5倍;汽车机身工作的价格同比增长2.4%(不季节性调整)。2016年9月汽车保险消费价格的BLS调查增长了6.4%,同比增长了6.4%;这部分归因于2016年3月至2016年4月的1.2%,于2016年3月,5月4日的另外的0.9%增加。3月份的增长是自2013年7月以来的最大元增长,仅次于4月以来第二次2003 that we’ve seen an increase of that size. Of course, many factors other than prices for auto repair—such as the continuing drop in insurers’ investment income, and continuing above-CPI growth in the prices for intensive medical care, and an unusual upturn in the collision rate, which is related to the increase in the number of people employed (and adding cars to rush hour)—likely are affecting these increases.

此外,有一些迹象表明,工资比通货膨胀更快地增长。劳工统计局报告称,同一年,9月平均每周盈利增长2.3%,平均每小时收益增长2.6%。工资增长影响工人赔偿,间接,责任和PIP索赔。通货膨胀高于上面的工资意味着消费者增加了购买力,这可能导致更强的经济增长在近期临时。随着经济接近充分的就业工资,预计将扩大通货膨胀,但可能需要一些时间来发展。劳动力市场上仍然懈怠,这是由工作兼职但要全职就业的589万人所证明的553,000人,这些人说他们甚至正在寻找工作,以及其他人不在劳动力中,但可以加入如果工作条件收紧等等。劳动力市场群体普遍认为至少在未来几个月内抑制了更高的通货膨胀。

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